JHEEM Modeling Analysis

Projected Aging Among
People with HIV

By 2040, the median age of adults with diagnosed HIV across 24 US states will rise from 51 to 62 years. State-level patterns vary substantially: more populous, urban states with older epidemics will age significantly, while rural states with younger populations may see little change.

This interactive tool allows you to explore how aging dynamics differ by state and demographic group, informing planning for age-related comorbidities among people living with HIV.

24 States

Representing 86% of diagnosed HIV cases in the US

51→62

Median age by 2040

50%+

Aged 65+ by 2040

About these plots: Black lines show the mean across 1,000 model simulations. Orange shaded regions represent 95% credible intervals. Green dots indicate CDC surveillance data. The dashed vertical line marks 2021, the last year of available surveillance data.

Diagnosed Prevalence

Total

New Diagnoses

Total

Model mean
95% credible interval
CDC surveillance data
End of observed data (2021)

Research Funding
& Institutional Support

This research is supported by grants from the National Institute of Mental Health, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and the National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities.

K08MH118094
K01AI138853
P30-AI094189
R01MD018539
JH

Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health

Computational Epidemiology Research Group

Advancing mathematical modeling for HIV prevention and control