The Potential Effect of Ending CDC Funding for HIV Tests: A Modeling Study in 18 States
Balasubramanian R, Schnure M, Forster R, Hanage WP, Batey DS, Althoff KN, Gebo KA, Dowdy DW, Shah M, Kasaie P, Fojo AT
If CDC-funded HIV testing ends permanently, we project 12,719 additional HIV infections by 2030—a 10% increase across 18 U.S. states.
CDC-funded HIV testing is a cornerstone of the national HIV prevention strategy, enabling early diagnosis and linkage to care. Testing identifies infections before transmission can occur, and people who know their status can access treatment that prevents onward transmission.
Related: Ryan White Program analysis (HIV care and treatment funding)
Policy Scenarios Modeled
We simulated three funding disruption scenarios to understand how different policy outcomes would affect HIV diagnosis and transmission.
Brief Interruption
Funding ends October 2025, resumes by end of 2027. Allows time for alternative funding arrangements.
Prolonged Interruption
Funding ends October 2025, resumes by end of 2029. Extended gap with eventual program restoration.
Complete Cessation
Program ends with no recovery. Projected impact: +10% infections (12,719 excess). State range: 3% to 30%.
States Studied
State-specific epidemic models capturing local patterns in HIV prevalence, testing rates, and CDC-funded testing program utilization.
Full Citation
Balasubramanian R, et al. The Potential Effect of Ending CDC Funding for HIV Tests: A Modeling Study in 18 States. medRxiv. 2025. doi:10.1101/2025.09.19.25336182
Research Funding
& Institutional Support
This research is supported by grants from the National Institute of Mental Health, the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, and the National Institute on Minority Health and Health Disparities.
Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health
Computational Epidemiology Research Group
Advancing mathematical modeling for HIV prevention and control